Hubris, Iraq and Afghanistan

When stuck in a hole, you should stop digging. First, do no harm.

I know there is an adage for every point of view, but these two keep coming to mind in the debate about the Iraq Wars and the War on Terror.

But first, a word about hubris. We all have it. But it is relative, that is, a matter of degree. Also, if a president does something catastrophically stupid because of his hubris, then this must be pointed out. Anything we ordinary citizens can say that might prevent future catastrophic mistakes by our leaders is a good thing.

It was hubris which led President George H. W. Bush to attack the Muslim country Iraq in 1991. Who elected him to be Policeman of the World? Answer: no one. We don't have "World Government", and that is good. Maybe it would be nice in a thousand years, but not in the foreseeable future. Even then, I bet the rest of the world would have to pay the Policeman big bucks to take on this thankless role.

But Pappa Bush suffered immensely from hubris. He just couldn't mind his own business. He forgot that when he fought bravely in WW2, it was a declared war against enemies which had attacked us. Iraq never attacked us. And since we are and were much more powerful than Iraq, then if they were crazy enough to attack us, they would have been quickly and utterly destroyed, with lots of collateral damage (as often happened in WW2).

But hubris eats at you. Why just be President when you can be a War President? We outlasted the USSR, so why not take on Iraq and show the world who is boss?

One of my favorite authors, Nassim Taleb, writes about risk. One of the really big risks is war, since you never know how it will turn out.

So, lets see what happened after Pappa Bush fed his hubris. We ended up in a second war with Iraq, the one in the 1990s when we kept them in a box. We also had an organization most Americans never heard of, Al Qaeda, and its leader, Osama bin Laden, declare war on us. Oops! Then, AQ and OBL carried out a series of attacks against us (the first WTC bombing, the embassy attacks in Africa, the barracks attack in Saudi Arabia, the attack on the USS Cole, and finally 9/11. Then we started nation-building in Afghanistan and Iraq.

I would have been quite happy if Pappa Bush had simply scolded Saddam Hussein for being a bad boy. That would not have cost us much. Instead, we have suffered thousands of casualties and spent over a trillion dollars fighting stupid wars and rebuilding after 9/11. If only Pappa Bush had remembered "first, do no harm". (My corollary for what to do after another nation or group attacks the US is: first, destroy them totally.)

Unfortunately, "W" made things worse because he forgot "When stuck in a hole, you should stop digging". He made a mistake when he invaded Iraq for developing WMDs. (Oops!) He compounded that mistake (dug deeper) when he came up with false reason after false reason for the invasion. Finally, he dug really deep when he decided to occupy and nation-build Iraq.

Now, you can't blame "W" for not knowing the inscrutable mind of a Muslim nation. After all, as he freely admits, he was a C student. But the sad truth is that the reaction of the Iraqis to our occupation has little to do with religion. It is more basic: nationalism and human nature. No one wants another country to invade your homeland and then install their kind of government. I know I would not like it if (say) Advanced Martians invaded the US and tried to install Martian-style government. For this mistake, "W" does deserve blame. All of it. Don't blame the neo-cons, don't blame the military. It is all on the shoulders of the worst president in American history.

By the way, I really don't care if Saddam and OBL had contact, whether directly or via subordinates. OBL and SH had contacts with a lot of bad actors. We need to be a wee bit more discriminating before we go to war. Otherwise, we would soon be at war with every other nation!

We need to get out of Iraq ASAP. No one knows if there will then be a bloodbath, since no one has a crystal ball. But if a regional war erupted between the Sunni nations (Saudi Arabia, Egypt, etc.) and the Shiite nations (Iran and most of Iraq), that is not our business. We are not the Policeman of the world. We had nothing to do with the centuries-long (and crazy) feud between these two groups.

We should also stop nation-building in Afghanistan. They, too, didn't ask for our help. They mostly hate us. But we should carpet-bomb those parts of Afghanistan and Pakistan where OBL might be hiding, and not worry about collateral damage. You can't win a war if you worry about collateral damage. If we had perfect weapons, there wouldn't be any collateral damage, but we don't have perfect weapons, and we should minimize American casualties and maximize enemy pain.

By the way, it really angered me that Kuwaitis were cheering on 9/11. Most of the South Koreans do not like us, even though we paid dearly in blood and treasure in the Korean War. There is no point in sacrificing American lives for the sake of other countries. Alliances are too temporal. (I would make a few exceptions: Great Britain and Canada are examples.) Vietnam was a complete waste.

We should never fight wars for oil. The act of war itself wastes an incredible amount of oil.

But now we are in a War on Terror (a war with Al Qaeda). We need to use our brains, and fight wisely. Use soft power. Build up our strength. Don't worry about collateral damage when going after AQ.