Monday, October 29, 2007

Should We Fear Al Qaeda?

Re Op-Ed Columnist: Fearing Fear Itself by Paul Krugman in today's NY Times:

I mostly agree with Mr. Krugman on his assessment of the leading Republican candidates. But where I disagree with him is in his assessment of Al Qaeda.

The consensus in the American Intelligence Community is that Al Qaeda (AQ) intends to detonate a WMD somewhere in the United States (probably Manhattan or the District of Columbia), just as soon as it is capable of carrying out such an attack.

I agree with Michael Scheuer (author of "Imperial Hubris") that about 90% of AQ are insurgents, and only about 10% are the terrorists who would execute such an attack on us.

Nevertheless, even if the probability were "low", the fact that AQ is determined to use WMDs against the US is something to worry about, especially considering the precarious state of nuclear-armed Pakistan.

It is easy to imagine one or more nukes falling into the hands of Osama bin Laden (OBL). After all, it is very likely that Islamist elements within the government or military or intelligence services of Pakistan are AQ sympathizers who are involved in hiding and/or protecting OBL inside Pakistan itself. Why else would OBL still be on the loose 6 long years after 9/11?

Therefore, with all due respect to Krugman, he is wrong about the threat of terror. But the GOP candidates are wrong about how we should deal with it.

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